Additional Data Discrepancies in Elmhurst Hospital Bed Occupancy During Spring 2020 Point to Potential Fraud
It looks like someone can't decide which story the data should tell....
Recent revisions to a public dataset now present a third version of inpatient occupancy at a media-elevated New York City hospital during the spring 2020 "pandemic emergency." The updated numbers tell a different story and strongly suggest an earlier version of the same dataset was misleading—if not intentionally distorted to create the illusion of a crisis involving a disease-spread event.
Previously…
In November, I highlighted a discrepancy in bed occupancy at Elmhurst Hospital Center in Queens—the facility widely dubbed the “epicenter of the epicenter” of New York City’s coronavirus outbreak and which became the focal point of President Trump’s 29 March 2020 press conference on the White House lawn.
Data I obtained in 2023 directly from NYC Health + Hospitals Corporation (HHC), the agency overseeing Elmhurst, revealed significantly lower bed occupancy during the early months of the pandemic than what was reported in the New York State Department of Health’s (NYS) "HERDS" COVID-19 file.1 The state’s time-series data starts later, on 26 March 2020, and shows bed occupancy rates 20-40% higher than those in the HHC data, with both datasets aligning perfectly on 16 April 2020 (see figure 1 below).
Figure 1
If the data from each source represent the same variable—the total number of patients in Acute and ICU beds each day—then they can’t both be correct.
The state’s publicly available data (represented by the red line) was presented as “the reality,” but it tells a very different story than the data I obtained directly from HHC (the blue line). Though incomplete, the state’s numbers imply a much higher baseline, followed by a sudden, sustained surge and then a decline. In contrast, HHC’s data shows a two-week drop in March, a slight rise and fall, and a more gradual surge that never exceeds historical levels, followed by a decrease.
Similar to the emergency department visit data for Elmhurst, the datasets present conflicting portrayals of what was actually happening—one reinforces the government-and-media narrative of Elmhurst being overwhelmed by patients suddenly sick from a novel coronavirus, and the other conveys that the situation was either normal or below normal, with little to indicate any ‘pandemic’-related crisis.
As I pointed out in November and reiterate now, I consider the discrepancy shown in Figure 1 above a clear fraud signal in and of itself.
A Third Story
I accessed the NYS HERDS file again this week, and to my surprise, the daily census of occupied beds (Acute + ICU) has been updated, presenting a third version of the number of patients each day. This new data is shown in figure 2 below, represented by the dark red line. (Data from 1 January 2020 to 25 March 2020 is still missing from the file.)
Figure 2
From March 26th through early September, patient volume remains steady at around 250 per day. After that, numbers begin to rise slightly and then follow a more erratic pattern, with typical weekday and weekend fluctuations continuing through November. In December, there's a slight drop in patient volume.2
Figure 3 compares occupancy data for Elmhurst from the NYS file in the timeframe for which total bed occupancy is shown or can be calculated from both files.3 Both lines cannot be accurate if they are reporting the same variable—the total number of patients occupying beds each day. If the brighter red line were adjusted (or "pulled") to the left, it might align more closely with the darker red line. As it stands, the data represented by the brighter red line appear to be "pushed" from the left.4
Figure 3
The data I obtained from HHC in 2023 extends back to April 1, 2016, and is shown alongside the NYS data in Figure 4 through December 31, 2020.5 As we can see, the new download (dark red line) still differs from the historical baselines (i.e., it’s lower), but it is closer to the baseline than the bright red line.
Figure 4
Which One Is “Right”?
I’m hesitant to say any of the datasets is accurate, as each one shows signs of tampering or misrepresentation. Additionally, the NYS data lacks a baseline; it starts too late to provide a sense of what’s normal or expected.
The HHC data (blue line) is the most convincing, up until the sharp plunge in early May, which persists through the end of 2020. While this aligns with the drop in emergency department visits, there are reasons to suspect that the sustained decline in ED visits—mirroring trends in other U.S. cities and countries—may partly be due to the sudden segregation of ED visits from other outpatient visits, along with the redirection of calls and visits to telehealth services.6 By contrast, the NYS data are claiming there was no real drop in patient census after the springtime event.
So, which of the three time-series is most likely to be an accurate representation of patient census at Elmhurst Hospital during the spring 2020 death spike?
Graphing the three datasets alongside the number of deaths reported each day at the hospital allows for a “test” of the respective census data and the official all-cause death curve (Figure 5). Elmhurst reported nearly 500 deaths over four weeks, whereas the "normal" number for that period would be 60-70—an astonishing event by any standard.7
Figure 5
Increases and decreases in a hospital’s daily census are partly driven by patient admissions and discharges (whether alive or deceased). Therefore, we would expect a mass casualty event inside of hospital to be reflected in the census data, at the very least through sudden and/or sharper rises and drops.
Focusing on the period from January 2020 to May 2020 (figure 6) facilitates a visual-perceptual examination of the claims made by each census line toward assessing which is most likely to be “true.”
Figure 6
The dark red line (NYS current data for Elmhurst) seems the most likely of the three scenarios to be entirely false, as the census shows little to no change—an outcome we would not expect during the death event depicted. If, as I suspect, the death data are manipulated, the dark red line still remains suspicious, because the stability implies that factors such as the barring of visitors and the sudden implementation of various protocols had virtually no impact on census.
The bright red line (previous NYS data) shows a sudden increase from an implied baseline, somewhat aligning with the idea of new patients arriving and dying quickly, as well as existing patients dying rapidly. However, the speed and magnitude of this increase are hard to believe, particularly in terms of body management, and are not well supported by testimony or media reports.8 Between March 26 and April 15 (the day before the bright red and blue lines report the same number), the bright red line may reflect beds "stolen" from the early deficit shown in the blue line.
The blue line (HHC's data) shows a decline starting a week into March, coinciding with Governor Cuomo's announcement about canceling elective surgeries. It’s hard to believe this decline occurred without a corresponding rise in deaths and is merely a function of patients scheduled for surgery not being admitted. I posit the early deficit in the blue line may reflect inpatient deaths “pushed forward” into the emergency period. This idea is supported by unresolved discrepancies involving data that Parrish et al obtained from HHC suggesting that the death event at HHC hospitals began earlier than official reports indicate. A “time shift” would not necessarily mean Elmhurst lost as many total patients as reported in the spring 2020 months, but would point to distortion in the death data HHC released to me.
Overall, I believe the HHC data (provided via FOI request) is the most reliable of the three for the spring 2020 period. However, the data's characteristics and strong baseline don't eliminate the possibility that either the historical or 2020 data still may be distorted or influenced by undisclosed changes in data collection or reporting practices. The list of data-related records that HHC has refused to release in response to lawful requests is extensive.9 Their poor justifications for [illegally] withholding information are reason enough to approach even the data they have provided with skepticism.
The discrepancies in bed occupancy data for Elmhurst Hospital are among the reasons I believe Elmhurst’s death curve is fraudulent—whether in magnitude, timing, or both—and by extension, the validity of New York City’s overall death curve.
All articles on Elmhurst Hospital can be accessed on this page. Elmhurst is also highlighted in New York City Spring 2020: An Unsubstantiated Mass Casualty Event That Appears Fraudulent & Staged.
Corrections made post-publication to date of President Trump’s press conference from 27 March 2020 to 29 March 2020, and to the year I obtained Elmhurst bed occupancy records from 2023 to 2022.(I requested the data in 2022.)
Hospital Electronic Response Data System (HERDS) Hospital Survey: COVID-19 Hospitalizations and Beds
A closer look at patient census in each file from August through December reveals not only three distinct levels being reported, but also varying patterns on specific dates and days of the week. Despite differences in magnitude (number of occupied beds), the three lines frequently fall in and out of sync with each other throughout the timeframe.
I’ve included the dates from 1 January 2020 through 25 March 2020 to emphasize that baseline data are absent and need to be disclosed.
I’ve previously illustrated this concept using the NYS dataset and a visual of a hand and posited elsewhere that data from earlier in the year were intentionally concealed and effectively "dumped" into the initial emergency weeks. The Governor’s 23 March 2020 Executive Order directed hospitals to increase capacity by 50%. I assert this was not achieved in traditional brick-and-mortar hospitals, and that field hospital and U.S.S. Comfort bed capacities were used to mask this reality.
The end date for the timeframe I had requested.
Specifically regarding Elmhurst, in this article, I offer an alternative perspective on the widely-held ‘panic and fear’ explanations for the brief lines outside the hospital and the subsequent drop in ED visit data.
I’ve studied Elmhurst Hospital in depth because it was placed “center stage” during the alleged New York City coronavirus outbreak “show”. The number of deaths reported across the roughly 60 hospitals in the city from mid-March to the end of May defies credulity. (See https://www.woodhouse76.com/p/wait-did-this-really-happen-in-new)
This includes the testimony of former New York State health commissioner Howard Zucker in an interview for the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic. Zucker’s statement about Elmhurst having “about 234 positive people in the hospital with COVID out of their 400 or so beds” seems to refer to the third or fourth week of March 2020. The bright red line in Figure 5 is inconsistent with the number Zucker provided. (See also https://www.woodhouse76.com/p/former-ny-health-commissioners-howard)
See “Running List of Problems with Obtaining & Reconciling HHC Data” section in NYC Health + Hospitals Corporation Denies Access to Public Records Yet Again