Bill Gates' Anachronistic Use of "Covid-19 Pandemic" on February 28, 2020 in the New England Journal of Medicine

...and NEJM's unsatisfactory explanation for it.

There’s a curious anachronism in an opinion piece written by Bill Gates and published in the New England Journal of Medicine on February 28, 2020, spotted recently by Thomas Verduyn.¹

Gates says Covid-19 pandemic almost two weeks before the WHO pandemic declaration on March 11, 2020 .

“In any crisis, leaders have two equally important responsibilities: Solve the immediate problem and keep it from happening again. The Covid-19 pandemic is a case in point.” - Bill Gates, 28 February 2020²

February 28th was the same day the Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Diseases 2019 was published.

Maybe NEJM was supposed to hold the letter until the official pandemic declaration and someone hit “publish” too soon, thinking the report announced a pandemic had arrived?

I was curious enough about it to email NEJM. Scroll down for the full exchange.

In summary, the media relations staffer for the journal

• suggested Gates’ use of Covid-19 pandemic isn’t out of place because ‘pandemic’ means widespread occurrence of an infectious disease over a country or the world at a point in time,

• ‘pandemic’ can be used when a situation meets that definition, and

• Gates & other experts were already using the word ‘pandemic’ to characterize Covid-19 prior to the WHO’s declaration on March 11, 2020.

I countered those points in my response (see last email in thread) and am awaiting another reply.

I recall plenty of people saying in February 2020 that COVID-19 could/would/should be declared a pandemic, but not experts and commenters definitively calling it a pandemic until the WHO said it was.³ For example, The New York Times was saying “a pandemic could be on the horizon” - and quoting experts on the difference between an epidemic versus a pandemic - on the day Gates’ NEJM op-ed debuted.

Bill Gates has been massively invested in the pandemic preparedness industry for decades and was never shy about his hope for a pandemic problem that vaccine research could solve.

Given that the WHO was writing letters to Jack Ma in February 2020, there’s a good chance the American billionaire who was convinced a spreading disease could wipe out 30 million people in six months was also getting updates and would have been told in advance that the moment that he (and many others) had been waiting for was about to arrive.

---

Emails between J. Hockett and New England Journal of Medicine media relations

From: Jessica Hockett
Subject: Query about Feb 28, 2020 Bill Gates letter in NEJM
Date: August 16, 2024
To: editorial@nejm.org

Good morning.

This might be a better question for a specific editor, so please feel free to forward my query as appropriate.

I am an independent researcher documenting the events of early 2020.

In his February 28, 2020 to NEJM, Bill Gates writes, “In any crisis, leaders have two equally important responsibilities: solve the immediate problem and keep it from happening again. The Covid-19 pandemic is a case in point. We need to save lives now while also improving the way we respond to outbreaks in general.” https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762

The WHO did not issue a pandemic declaration until March 11, 2020.

Is this an error on NEJM’s part or on Mr. Gates’ part (or is there another explanation for the anachronism)?

Thank you kindly,

Jessica Hockett, PhD

The media representative asked me to clarify whether I was from a particular media outlet. I wrote:

From: Jessica Hockett
Sent: Friday, August 16, 2024 12:48 PM
To: NEJM Media Relations
Subject: Re: [EXT] Query about Feb 28, 2020 Bill Gates letter in NEJM

Hi Erin.

Thank you so much for your prompt reply!

I don’t work for an organization; I work independently and chronicle that work on Substack. 

I apologize for not linking the letter directly in my initial inquiry, though I’m sure you were able to find it. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762⁴

An associate recently noticed the language in Mr. Gates’ letter. I found the anachronism quite striking and wondered if NEJM had an explanation for it. 

I note the letter was published the same day the WHO-China Joint Mission Report was released but I don’t see the word “pandemic” used in the report. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/report-of-the-who-china-joint-mission-on-coronavirus-disease-2019-(covid-19)

Is it possible that Mr. Gates' letter was intended to be published after the WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic but was released sooner? Or perhaps his and/or NEJM’s understanding was that the WHO was going to issue a declaration sooner than it did?

I appreciate your assistance!

She replied:

From: NEJM Media Relations

Subject: Re: [EXT] Query about Feb 28, 2020 Bill Gates letter in NEJM

Date: August 16, 2024, 2:02:22 PM CDT

To: Jessica Hockett

Hi Jessica,

Thanks for clarifying where you’re publishing your research. To address your observation, the term "pandemic" refers to a widespread occurrence of an infectious disease over a whole country or the world at a particular time. Although the WHO now has the designation of “public health emergency of international concern,” anyone can call any infectious disease outbreak a pandemic that meets the aforementioned definition. In late February of 2020 after the Wuhan outbreak and the start of international spread, that seemed like a fair description.

While the WHO is the official body that declared Covid-19 a pandemic in March 2020, the term "pandemic" was already in use by various experts and commentators, including Mr. Gates, to describe the situation as it evolved in early 2020.

For additional context, you can CLICK HERE to access the WHO situation report from February 28, 2020, which outlines the extent of Covid-19’s spread across multiple countries.

Best,

Erin

From: Jessica Hockett Subject: Re: [EXT] Query about Feb 28, 2020 Bill Gates letter in NEJM
Date: August 20, 2024
To: NEJM Media Relations <MediaRelations@nejm.org>

A few reactions:

1) Do you have a source for the pandemic definition you gave?

2) You said WHO “now" has the PHEIC designation, but WHO has declared PHEICs since 2005. The agency declared a PHEIC for 2019-nCoV on January 30, 2020, and then COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

3) You said experts, commenters, and Gates were already calling it a pandemic. That is not consistent with anything I’ve read from January or February. Can you provide examples of others saying “pandemic” in writing or interviews prior to Feb 28, 2020? (Preferably examples of Mr. Gates or other scholarly publications using it.)

4) I’m not seeing the relevance of the Feb 28, 2020 SitRep, other than it being the same day Mr. Gates letter was published. Can you clarify?  The March 11 SitRep makes very clear that it is on that day a pandemic was declared.

5) Finally, I find it difficult to believe that Mr. Gates, who is so active in the pandemic preparedness & disease prevention arena, should have made a mistake in saying “Covid-19 pandemic" without having done so deliberately. In late February, Americans (and the world) were waiting to see if the WHO would declare a pandemic. NEJM editors are careful readers, so the journal overlooking the use of the term strikes me as odd.

Is there another explanation for Mr. Gates’ anachronistic use of the term?

Regards,

Jessica Hockett

Additional email correspondence will be pasted here.

1.

Thomas V

spotted the anachronism in comments on “Is Bill Gates an Extraordinary Visionary?” (

Jonathan Engler

)

2. I’ve commented on Gates’ article previously but had overlooked the timing of him saying “Covid-19 pandemic”.

3. I’m happy to be corrected about this by readers or NEJM. Even if I am mistaken, the definitions and assumptions from the NEJM media relations are instructive with respect to the timing and mechanism of ‘spread’ - and Gates’ pre-emption of the WHO declaration shows he was confident about ‘solutions’ and looking forward to the months ahead.

4. Post-publication footnote, 8/20/24: I said this because I had neglected to copy/paste the link in the email to the media relations department. The first email in the chain I provided in this article was the one I sent to the editorial dept email address, in which I had correctly provided the link. Apologies to readers if that was confusing!