Later today I will be posting an update on childhood mortality. As you know, teen mortality (age 13-17) jumped up, too. I’ve got the breakout for 2021 now and it’s also nasty. Not just 2020, in the immediate aftermath.
I'll be looking for that. Suffice to say, covid-19 wasn't the culprit. As you know, the virus hasn't increased the respiratory disease mortality burden among any pediatric groups.
The effect of the RESPONSE to covid-19 on teen morality is another matter altogether...
Aug 26, 2022·edited Aug 26, 2022Liked by Jessica Hockett
Good article.
This example highlights an inherent problem with the incentives of government and explains why government can't help but grow. The incentives are such that Pritzger cares more about the positive headlines generated when he initiates a program or legislation and much less about the results of that program or legislation .
In fact, one could argue that someone like Pritzger benefits if the program fails because that gives him another opportunity for positive press on the issue since the press is unlikely to hold him accountable for the first failure.
Government throws good money after bad almost by definition. The worse a department performs, the more funding they get.
(After thinking about it, I do not think that even the average Dem voter cares if the programs are successful or not. What the average Dem voter wants is to feel that someone is addressing the issue so that they can get back to their latte and ignoring the people who need assistance)
Illinois did have a 28% increase in overdose deaths in 2020. But Florida had a 37% increase. Texas had a 31% increase. New Jersey? 1%. It doesn't seem any COVID policies or restrictions had any correlation to these increases.
It makes zero sense to say that the government's response to covid-19 isn't associated with the national increase in drug ODs.
My focus in this post isn't that Illinois was better than x state or worse than y state on these data. Specific reasons for increases in different regions and states are myriad & complex, but there's no question our Panic-Demic was a trigger for the massive jumps.
My point with J.B. is that he campaigned on NOT doing what he did - and castigated his predecessor over measures that he then turned around & instituted "because covid". This was one of many policy failures. TMK, he hasn't admitted that one thing he did was harmful. Instead, the blame has been on "the unvaccinated," "anti-maskers," "peddlers of disinformation" and other chimeras.
To be clear: If 50 governors of 50 states do a wrong thing, it's still a wrong thing and doesn't exonerate the wrongdoer. I don't care if the name is J.B., Gavin, Ron, Gretchen, etc.
I live and vote in Illinois - so that's the governor about whom I have the most to say.
If the government response was the main & direct reason for the increase in OD's (which had been trending up for years & already were increasing in the months before COVID in 2020) and not due to a tainted drug supply (no shipping, importing, smuggling, resulting in contaminated drugs, potent & synthetic drugs) then we would see a correlation between overdose increases and government responses. We literally don't. Saying "it makes zero sense" comes from a subjective place of bias instead of looking at the data & facts, without making subjective declarations.
I'm not saying the pandemic and/or response didn't trigger any of the increases. I agree it's complex and nuanced. But to claim without lockdowns & extended restrictions (but with the consequences of the pandemic) we wouldn't have seen an increase is false. Florida proves this.
I don't have strong feelings about JB. My main issue was blaming government responses to COVID for increased overdoses. Do you really think New Jersey had a better response to COVID than Florida?
Again, the reasons for the increases are varied and complex - and include issues involving supply & trade. But it's disingenuous to pretend that these & other contributing issues would have occurred in the absence of the government's response to covid-19.
My point in this post is about Pritzker's hypocrisy.
What impact, if any, do you think cutting off programs and services had on drug users? None?
What impact, if any, do you think the spring 2020 shutdowns (which happened everywhere, including Florida) and orders to stay home had on people's recreational drug and alcohol use? None?
You think a 30 day shutdown in Florida caused a 37% rise in overdose deaths?
But New Jersey was locked down significantly longer and saw almost no increase.
That doesn't make logical sense.
It's disingenuous to claim that if lockdowns didn't occur a rise wouldn't have occurred regardless during a pandemic with a highly contentious political climate, protests against the police & an election year with Trump as president DURING the pandemic. Lockdowns or not, Florida was going to see that rise.
Again not saying restrictions didn't contribute but they're not the main cause at all. Or else New Jersey would have seen a significant rise. I get we all have narratives and agendas. But I'm sticking to the data.
You're saying things I didn't say and aren't answer the questions I'm posing.
Moreover, you're ignoring the role of geography and trafficking patterns. Look at the data for Florida, Arizona, California, and Texas. What do all of those states have in common?
Let me know when you've read the report I posted above.
So it's geography that caused the increases not lockdowns. That makes more sense.
And that would explain why New Jersey, which had one of the longest and most strict lockdowns in the country saw no increase. Because the increase isn't correlated to government covid policy.
Later today I will be posting an update on childhood mortality. As you know, teen mortality (age 13-17) jumped up, too. I’ve got the breakout for 2021 now and it’s also nasty. Not just 2020, in the immediate aftermath.
Thanks, Mary.
I'll be looking for that. Suffice to say, covid-19 wasn't the culprit. As you know, the virus hasn't increased the respiratory disease mortality burden among any pediatric groups.
The effect of the RESPONSE to covid-19 on teen morality is another matter altogether...
Good article.
This example highlights an inherent problem with the incentives of government and explains why government can't help but grow. The incentives are such that Pritzger cares more about the positive headlines generated when he initiates a program or legislation and much less about the results of that program or legislation .
In fact, one could argue that someone like Pritzger benefits if the program fails because that gives him another opportunity for positive press on the issue since the press is unlikely to hold him accountable for the first failure.
Government throws good money after bad almost by definition. The worse a department performs, the more funding they get.
(After thinking about it, I do not think that even the average Dem voter cares if the programs are successful or not. What the average Dem voter wants is to feel that someone is addressing the issue so that they can get back to their latte and ignoring the people who need assistance)
Correct on all points.
Problems aren't problems for politicians like Pritzker. They are opportunities for him to create "solutions" without ever having to own his part.
On the personal side, the problems give him more places to channel his philanthropy.
Jessica I hope your watching Tucker tonight!
Nope. Don’t have cable. :)
Illinois did have a 28% increase in overdose deaths in 2020. But Florida had a 37% increase. Texas had a 31% increase. New Jersey? 1%. It doesn't seem any COVID policies or restrictions had any correlation to these increases.
It makes zero sense to say that the government's response to covid-19 isn't associated with the national increase in drug ODs.
My focus in this post isn't that Illinois was better than x state or worse than y state on these data. Specific reasons for increases in different regions and states are myriad & complex, but there's no question our Panic-Demic was a trigger for the massive jumps.
My point with J.B. is that he campaigned on NOT doing what he did - and castigated his predecessor over measures that he then turned around & instituted "because covid". This was one of many policy failures. TMK, he hasn't admitted that one thing he did was harmful. Instead, the blame has been on "the unvaccinated," "anti-maskers," "peddlers of disinformation" and other chimeras.
To be clear: If 50 governors of 50 states do a wrong thing, it's still a wrong thing and doesn't exonerate the wrongdoer. I don't care if the name is J.B., Gavin, Ron, Gretchen, etc.
I live and vote in Illinois - so that's the governor about whom I have the most to say.
If the government response was the main & direct reason for the increase in OD's (which had been trending up for years & already were increasing in the months before COVID in 2020) and not due to a tainted drug supply (no shipping, importing, smuggling, resulting in contaminated drugs, potent & synthetic drugs) then we would see a correlation between overdose increases and government responses. We literally don't. Saying "it makes zero sense" comes from a subjective place of bias instead of looking at the data & facts, without making subjective declarations.
I'm not saying the pandemic and/or response didn't trigger any of the increases. I agree it's complex and nuanced. But to claim without lockdowns & extended restrictions (but with the consequences of the pandemic) we wouldn't have seen an increase is false. Florida proves this.
I don't have strong feelings about JB. My main issue was blaming government responses to COVID for increased overdoses. Do you really think New Jersey had a better response to COVID than Florida?
"The measures implemented by Governments to counter the COVID- 19 pandemic have thus inevitably affected all aspects of the illegal drug markets, from the production and trafficking of drugs to their consumption." https://www.unodc.org/documents/southernafrica//Publications/TransnationalOrganisedCrime/Covid-19-and-drug-supply-chain-Mai2020.pdf
Again, the reasons for the increases are varied and complex - and include issues involving supply & trade. But it's disingenuous to pretend that these & other contributing issues would have occurred in the absence of the government's response to covid-19.
My point in this post is about Pritzker's hypocrisy.
What impact, if any, do you think cutting off programs and services had on drug users? None?
What impact, if any, do you think the spring 2020 shutdowns (which happened everywhere, including Florida) and orders to stay home had on people's recreational drug and alcohol use? None?
You think a 30 day shutdown in Florida caused a 37% rise in overdose deaths?
But New Jersey was locked down significantly longer and saw almost no increase.
That doesn't make logical sense.
It's disingenuous to claim that if lockdowns didn't occur a rise wouldn't have occurred regardless during a pandemic with a highly contentious political climate, protests against the police & an election year with Trump as president DURING the pandemic. Lockdowns or not, Florida was going to see that rise.
Again not saying restrictions didn't contribute but they're not the main cause at all. Or else New Jersey would have seen a significant rise. I get we all have narratives and agendas. But I'm sticking to the data.
You're saying things I didn't say and aren't answer the questions I'm posing.
Moreover, you're ignoring the role of geography and trafficking patterns. Look at the data for Florida, Arizona, California, and Texas. What do all of those states have in common?
Let me know when you've read the report I posted above.
So it's geography that caused the increases not lockdowns. That makes more sense.
And that would explain why New Jersey, which had one of the longest and most strict lockdowns in the country saw no increase. Because the increase isn't correlated to government covid policy.
At least we can agree on that.
The measures he took killed people, needlessly destroyed mental health, scuttled the economy, and saved no lives.
That person is unlikely to change his/her mind about anything related to the Governor - no matter what data he/she sees