I don’t see how Ioannides can discuss vaccines without mentioning adverse effects. There are over 19,000 deaths associated with them in VAERS, some are coincidences but most occurred the day of the shot. Some very large number was due directly to the shot, reading the detailed descriptions of how they died is not easy.
As far as effectiveness, I have not seen any place in the world that had infections or deaths decline with more shots, then not rise again soon after, and then again.
I know Dr I is famous and I’m not, but I do know when something doesn’t make sense.
I admit I’ve read exactly none of his work, but I did save what he wrote in March 2020 that stated the obvious: the 7 deaths out of 700 cases on the DP meant the IFR was was at most 1% and likely more like 0.3%, because all of the deaths were with the elderly. He estimated that would work out to 10K deaths in the US, similar to the flu.
What I don’t get is if that was correct, and it was, then where did all of the lives saved by the vaccines come from? There were ~500K excess deaths in 2020, almost all of them iatrogenic or just literally scared to death.
His IFR's were too high and, as a premier statistician, he should have known to present/analyze the data in the context of death from any cause after a cruise.
It's actually NOT as helpful as people think to say that IFR is similar to flu without saying if it ADDS RISK to flu.
See what I'm saying?
That's what Ioannidis failed to acknowledge at the time. It should've been noted as either a limitation in his calculation or estimated in another way. Am I exercising a degree of Presentism? Perhaps. But my bar is high for eminent people - especially someone who helped expose the Theranos fraud.
Risk of death from ANY cause increases with age.
500K excess deaths in the U.S. in 2020? Are you sure? How sure are we - and how sure is John Ioannidis - about 27,000 additional people dying in New York City in eleven weeks?
My data for excess mortality comes from the Human Mortality database (https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/) which indicates 527,923 excess deaths in 2020 in the US vs 2019. There were even more excess deaths in 2021, the year of the vaccine - 603,768, and 423,170 in 2022. There has been no period of less mortality, so the total excess mortality since 2019 is approaching 2 million in the US alone.
Covid could not have caused this. Whether the IFR is 0.3% as his March 2020 estimate or something lower, it could not have killed that many people.
I would imagine it took some degree of courage for him to estimate and IFR that was less than 10% of WHOs’, so he deserves a great deal of credit just for that.
As for the flu - for whatever reason it seems to have disappeared during the covid years, so excess mortality is the only meaningful measure.
I have no idea how he would explain the NYC die off, although I’d like to hear what he has to say.
To clarify, my question about 500K was somewhat rhetorical/sarcastic because I believe we should not take ANY death data the U.S. or any other government puts forth as necessarily true when the death records the numerals purport to represent are not available for the public to review.
The four things enumerated toward the beginning of the article are things Ioannidis and many other accept that I do not. 1) is related to data.
Ioannidis apparently accepts it. He thinks he is right; I think I am right.
I don't know how many U.S. COVID-attributed deaths Ioannidis thinks were caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection but am happy to read any paper where he has given an estimate or expressed view relevant to the question.
I also don't know what level of "courage" it took for him to write the STAT essay. Nothing in his Stanford remarks indicates that he thinks he necessarily took a courage or difficult stand. He's mentions people he believes were courageous - some of whom people remember as rather supportive of the government's COVID narrative.
Flu did not disappear. Positive flu tests were disappeared in March 2020. I believe it was intentional (and spoke about that a bit in the podcast yesterday). At minimum, it was the on-ramping of testing for SARS-CoV-2 and de-prioritization of testing for influenza that gave the appearance of New Virus snuffing out Flu Virus. Thread: https://x.com/Wood_House76/status/1635856560026009600
Whether influenza viruses are causative of respiratory illness is another question altogether, but it's fairly clear that potential causes of pneumonia are numerous and that a single causative agent can't necessarily be blamed. https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/whodunnit-unabridged
If Ioannidis has spoken to the NYC event, like you, I would love to hear/read what he's said.
He doesn't mention New York in his 6 May 2020 testimony, but it's the Main event that would've been influencing people's thinking at the time. So at the very least, I think it had an impact on him.
As for the case of the missing flu - that’s why I said ‘for whatever reason’ it disappeared. Testing, viral competition, whatever; it’s an interesting topic but I don’t have any insight. That’s why I believe the bottom line of excess death is the only meaningful statistic. Counting deaths seems to be one of the few things governments can actually do. Likewise I avoid the virus/respiratory disease issue because I don’t have anything to contribute.
Maybe courage isn’t the right word to describe Dr I’s piece in March 2020, honesty might be better, but he was one of very few people who weren’t hysterical. Jay B, the two doctors Dr Erickson & Dr Massihi, Fauci 1.0 (before he flipped) and very few others. So he gets everlasting credit with me, whatever else he said after.
I remember my first marathon - somebody died during THAT, for heavens sake! And that was only for a few hours with healthy people. A cruise ship with thousands of elderly for days or weeks, and it’s inevitable there will be deaths.
I was hoping the piece would set some sort of baseline for this happening. The industry must have some idea, but I could see why they don’t like to talk about it.
“I’ve tracked the COVID Era pretty closely and don’t know of anyone who was right about everything. ”
You don’t know me, but I was actually right about everything. It wasn’t hard. All you needed was common sense and respect for human rights.
I don’t see how Ioannides can discuss vaccines without mentioning adverse effects. There are over 19,000 deaths associated with them in VAERS, some are coincidences but most occurred the day of the shot. Some very large number was due directly to the shot, reading the detailed descriptions of how they died is not easy.
As far as effectiveness, I have not seen any place in the world that had infections or deaths decline with more shots, then not rise again soon after, and then again.
I know Dr I is famous and I’m not, but I do know when something doesn’t make sense.
I don't see how people don't see that John Ioannidis has been incredibly consistent - and consistently wrong - since 2020.
He is pro pandemic
He is pro COVID shot
He is pro a lot of things.
And always has been.
I admit I’ve read exactly none of his work, but I did save what he wrote in March 2020 that stated the obvious: the 7 deaths out of 700 cases on the DP meant the IFR was was at most 1% and likely more like 0.3%, because all of the deaths were with the elderly. He estimated that would work out to 10K deaths in the US, similar to the flu.
What I don’t get is if that was correct, and it was, then where did all of the lives saved by the vaccines come from? There were ~500K excess deaths in 2020, almost all of them iatrogenic or just literally scared to death.
Did you read my article?
His IFR's were too high and, as a premier statistician, he should have known to present/analyze the data in the context of death from any cause after a cruise.
It's actually NOT as helpful as people think to say that IFR is similar to flu without saying if it ADDS RISK to flu.
See what I'm saying?
That's what Ioannidis failed to acknowledge at the time. It should've been noted as either a limitation in his calculation or estimated in another way. Am I exercising a degree of Presentism? Perhaps. But my bar is high for eminent people - especially someone who helped expose the Theranos fraud.
Risk of death from ANY cause increases with age.
500K excess deaths in the U.S. in 2020? Are you sure? How sure are we - and how sure is John Ioannidis - about 27,000 additional people dying in New York City in eleven weeks?
Yes, I did read your article.
My data for excess mortality comes from the Human Mortality database (https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/) which indicates 527,923 excess deaths in 2020 in the US vs 2019. There were even more excess deaths in 2021, the year of the vaccine - 603,768, and 423,170 in 2022. There has been no period of less mortality, so the total excess mortality since 2019 is approaching 2 million in the US alone.
Covid could not have caused this. Whether the IFR is 0.3% as his March 2020 estimate or something lower, it could not have killed that many people.
I would imagine it took some degree of courage for him to estimate and IFR that was less than 10% of WHOs’, so he deserves a great deal of credit just for that.
As for the flu - for whatever reason it seems to have disappeared during the covid years, so excess mortality is the only meaningful measure.
I have no idea how he would explain the NYC die off, although I’d like to hear what he has to say.
To clarify, my question about 500K was somewhat rhetorical/sarcastic because I believe we should not take ANY death data the U.S. or any other government puts forth as necessarily true when the death records the numerals purport to represent are not available for the public to review.
The four things enumerated toward the beginning of the article are things Ioannidis and many other accept that I do not. 1) is related to data.
I of course agree COVID-19 didn't cause those deaths because I reject the WHO's assertion that a new cause of death came into existence. https://www.woodhouse76.com/p/covid-19-did-not-come-from-a-lab
Ioannidis apparently accepts it. He thinks he is right; I think I am right.
I don't know how many U.S. COVID-attributed deaths Ioannidis thinks were caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection but am happy to read any paper where he has given an estimate or expressed view relevant to the question.
I also don't know what level of "courage" it took for him to write the STAT essay. Nothing in his Stanford remarks indicates that he thinks he necessarily took a courage or difficult stand. He's mentions people he believes were courageous - some of whom people remember as rather supportive of the government's COVID narrative.
Flu did not disappear. Positive flu tests were disappeared in March 2020. I believe it was intentional (and spoke about that a bit in the podcast yesterday). At minimum, it was the on-ramping of testing for SARS-CoV-2 and de-prioritization of testing for influenza that gave the appearance of New Virus snuffing out Flu Virus. Thread: https://x.com/Wood_House76/status/1635856560026009600
Whether influenza viruses are causative of respiratory illness is another question altogether, but it's fairly clear that potential causes of pneumonia are numerous and that a single causative agent can't necessarily be blamed. https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/whodunnit-unabridged
If Ioannidis has spoken to the NYC event, like you, I would love to hear/read what he's said.
He doesn't mention New York in his 6 May 2020 testimony, but it's the Main event that would've been influencing people's thinking at the time. So at the very least, I think it had an impact on him.
As for the case of the missing flu - that’s why I said ‘for whatever reason’ it disappeared. Testing, viral competition, whatever; it’s an interesting topic but I don’t have any insight. That’s why I believe the bottom line of excess death is the only meaningful statistic. Counting deaths seems to be one of the few things governments can actually do. Likewise I avoid the virus/respiratory disease issue because I don’t have anything to contribute.
Maybe courage isn’t the right word to describe Dr I’s piece in March 2020, honesty might be better, but he was one of very few people who weren’t hysterical. Jay B, the two doctors Dr Erickson & Dr Massihi, Fauci 1.0 (before he flipped) and very few others. So he gets everlasting credit with me, whatever else he said after.
Look Inside A Cruise Ship Morgue
16th April 2024
by Jenni Fielding
https://www.cruisemummy.co.uk/cruise-ship-morgues/
I rest my case.
lol
I remember my first marathon - somebody died during THAT, for heavens sake! And that was only for a few hours with healthy people. A cruise ship with thousands of elderly for days or weeks, and it’s inevitable there will be deaths.
I was hoping the piece would set some sort of baseline for this happening. The industry must have some idea, but I could see why they don’t like to talk about it.
Well written.