The HDNY numbers are quite weird. Why only 830 in-home and 590 in-hospital "Covid deaths" in the almost three years after May 2020? This doesn't match the city's counts in which post-May deaths are almost equal to pre-June - essentially the nursing home reports are totally missing the winter 20/21 and 21/22 waves.
Donor seroprevelance was sub 15% in NYC in June (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8081167/) so if it's immunity from the spring wave that prevents later deaths in nursing homes, there most have been something like a 100% AR. I wonder if there are any studies measuring antibodies just in the nursing homes. Still seems off. Mostly just seems like most locations stopped reporting deaths.
b. https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/225/3/367/6283551 58% of the residents tested positive for serology, but never tested positive on a PCR? So, mild/asymptomatic in those age groups most vulnerable. 79% of the staff was serology positive, no PCR positive.
2) Most U.S. nursing home residents who died covid-blamed deaths in spring 2020 died in hospitals, not in nursing homes. (Illinois is illustrative, but I've checked many counties in metro areas where covid+ people being admitted to nursing homes was blamed for excess.) https://twitter.com/EWoodhouse7/status/1639374941928734725?s=20
3) Isolation, risky transfers of nursing home residents to hospitals (and back again, for some), neglect, etc. - these are the real culprits of NH resident deaths, not "sudden spread of novel virus."
3 - But your article also shows that deaths of nursing home residents are a bit player in the story of overall "Covid deaths" and excess deaths. You can't kill regular people just by giving them a ride to a hospital. The people who are closest to death to begin with do not actually drive most deaths, because every year they are being cycled out in the highest proportion - the denominator always stays low. So you can't actually mine the nursing home pop for a lot of excess death for this reason - they are already running on fumes in terms of vulnerables.
Yes, you are correct. That's the first, best, and in many ways ONLY point. Still, we don't know how many nursing home residents died in NY or NYC hospitals, because the state has only reported the "confirmed covid" at-hospital deaths. To your point, how many more could it possibly be? No matter what, we're left with an astounding number of "extra" deaths. Who were those people, why were they in the hospital, and what happened to them in the hospital?
Reminder: There were no 3rd-party witnesses to the in-hospital and in-nursing home facility deaths.
A follow-up - The LA nursing home link was very helpful in calibrating expectations. Also my tossed-off thoughts about nursing homes not driving deaths didn't make a lot of sense. Overall it does appear that the attack rate in nursing homes was extremely high in many places, but to start with LA, there were very few deaths in California in 2020, so that's a big problem with linking the virus to deaths in other places.
- So a nearly 100% attack rate in NYC nursing homes (explaining lack of waves afterward) seems totally plausible. The virus infected everyone. Whether it's what killed people or not.
It's impossible to make the argument that a virus that showed itself nowhere in mortality data prior to human interventions is responsible for the mass casualty event we witnessed in spring 2020. NYC is the best example of this. https://twitter.com/EWoodhouse7/status/1628591291075289089?s=20
L.A. vs NYC is instructive, not as an example of "virus spread" but of susceptibility of people in given conditions to panic. Note when L.A. hospital inpatient really started to rise -- and when NYC rose again: when mass vaccination began.
The NJ and London studies suffer from the same problem many studies do -- reliance on a bad case definition.
We get closer to the truth by starting with the null hypothesis ("The natural course of Covid caused no excess deaths") than we do by starting with the assumption that it caused most.
LA county has plenty of dependent elderly Asians and Hispanics, I don't know the numbers I just know you see them everywhere; and the panic here was just as extreme as anywhere, so if you find high seroprevalance in LA before the vax it complicates both theories.
If virus, why didn't kill?
If reaction to virus, why didn't kill?
Note, however, that the "if virus" problem has a possible answer in the form of B.1 / D614G - so the virus we got in spring 2020 was different than what Europe and NYC got. B.1 hits us in the winter, and that's when there are some deaths (though still not as many as NYC, again, I am not discounting localized mistreatment "culls" as an important factor). Winter wave deaths are in reversal by actual roll-out of the vaccine here, which was on the slower side. Nor did we get a spring 2021 Alpha wave despite the vaccines (compare huge difference with Michigan, which was closer to Canada).
I was mostly setting the etiology question aside. If the null hypothesis is that the virus did not drive deaths, that would imply policy and reaction drove deaths. However, policy and reaction driving deaths does not itself affirm the null hypothesis. I.e., there are knife murders does not mean there are not gun murders, they are not mutually exclusive.
Further, certain 'assumptions' are reasonable. I know that modern medicine is bent on artificially prolonging death as long as possible. Humans aren't allowed to get sick from regular bacterial pneumonia, die from cancer, diabetes - all of which leads to a lot of people only being alive in spring 2020 because some patchwork of interventions had been developed for whatever would have killed them. It is reasonable to assume a new viral pneumonia would kill (setting aside the question of whether there should be new viral pneumonias outside of influenza A subtype switches). It's just as "disruptive" as isolation, movement, etc., on these vulnerable groups. Like I said, it could have been both.
I have another comment about LA but I don't want to bind it up with this one.
"but not how many nursing home residents total died in hospitals."
And how they died.
Get the receipts on vents used, midazolam used, propofol used, morphine sulfite used etc.
In order to launch the shock-and-awe phase of the Covid Operation into the Western world it was necessary to create the illusion of a viral invasion.
To conjure a post-modern Potemkin plague you need to come up with the dead bodies. These iatrogenic deaths of fragile people were used to give the impression that there was “a deadly virus” circulating.
The only pandemic was one of violent government and biomedical assault against people.
The official narrative of "Covid" is a cold-blooded organized deception- all facets of it. There was no pandemic.
If you click on 'Data by Age Group' you can see data with or without CLI. Other useful info there too if you play around with the settings (including date range).
"The Department, as a result, was not transparent in its reporting of Covid-19 deaths at nursing homes. Whether due to the poor-quality data that it was collecting initially or, later, a deliberate decision, for certain periods during the pandemic, the Department understated the number of deaths at nursing homes by as much as 50% [that's pretty similar to the difference in the HDNY in-home Covid deaths and the CDC in-home all-cause deaths; however this is extending to all of 2020]
From April 12, 2020 to February 3, 2021, the Department frequently changed its basis for the public reporting of Covid-19 deaths in nursing homes (e.g., reporting only resident deaths that occurred at the nursing home vs. reporting all deaths regardless of where they occurred, such as at a hospital), with virtually no explanation publicly as to why it changed.*
All told, for the nearly 10-month period from April 2020 to February 2021, the Department failed to account for approximately 4,100 lives lost due to Covid-19."
*around page 17/18 it gets to how these changes seem to have been to improve NY's ranking in nursing home deaths, by simply omitting in-hospital ones around the time of certain reports
Sigh we need datasets without suppressed values. It's ridiculous. We saw 100ks of preventable deaths and instead of tracking this down we are protecting dead peoples' privacy.
My research leads me to conclude that certain public health officials intentionally concealed evidence that the coronavirus was infecting many people as early as the fall of 2019. In this article, I list 27 ways officials likely accomplished this very important goal.
I don’t think any other Covid writer has looked at the question of HOW early spread was concealed from the public. And, in my opinion, officials HAD to conceal this evidence.
One problem with the Cuomo put a bunch of infectious people back in nursing homes and killed thousands argument is, that didn't happen in Michigan. I believe Illinois and Washington had a similar nursing homes rule, and they also didn't have the mass of deaths that New York and bordering states had.
The key states/cities sent their NH residents to the hospitals and pretended more of them died at the nursing homes.
That’s what is so ironic about New York. Cuomo knew, I think, that the hospitals were where the mass death had really occurred, but couldn’t throw doctors and admins under the bus.
If you have the state's nursing home resident death count for spring 2020 or for 2020 (weekly data is best), go ahead and post the link, and I will check my theory in PA.
The HDNY numbers are quite weird. Why only 830 in-home and 590 in-hospital "Covid deaths" in the almost three years after May 2020? This doesn't match the city's counts in which post-May deaths are almost equal to pre-June - essentially the nursing home reports are totally missing the winter 20/21 and 21/22 waves.
Donor seroprevelance was sub 15% in NYC in June (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8081167/) so if it's immunity from the spring wave that prevents later deaths in nursing homes, there most have been something like a 100% AR. I wonder if there are any studies measuring antibodies just in the nursing homes. Still seems off. Mostly just seems like most locations stopped reporting deaths.
Makes zero sense, but I believe NYC is the exception that proves the rules, including:
1) SARS-CoV-2 isn't super deadly in nursing homes.
a. Even Axford & Ioannnidis's estimates are too high https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.08.21260210v2.full, but are certainly lower than what media and govt officials would have us believe.
b. https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/225/3/367/6283551 58% of the residents tested positive for serology, but never tested positive on a PCR? So, mild/asymptomatic in those age groups most vulnerable. 79% of the staff was serology positive, no PCR positive.
2) Most U.S. nursing home residents who died covid-blamed deaths in spring 2020 died in hospitals, not in nursing homes. (Illinois is illustrative, but I've checked many counties in metro areas where covid+ people being admitted to nursing homes was blamed for excess.) https://twitter.com/EWoodhouse7/status/1639374941928734725?s=20
3) Isolation, risky transfers of nursing home residents to hospitals (and back again, for some), neglect, etc. - these are the real culprits of NH resident deaths, not "sudden spread of novel virus."
3 - But your article also shows that deaths of nursing home residents are a bit player in the story of overall "Covid deaths" and excess deaths. You can't kill regular people just by giving them a ride to a hospital. The people who are closest to death to begin with do not actually drive most deaths, because every year they are being cycled out in the highest proportion - the denominator always stays low. So you can't actually mine the nursing home pop for a lot of excess death for this reason - they are already running on fumes in terms of vulnerables.
Yes, you are correct. That's the first, best, and in many ways ONLY point. Still, we don't know how many nursing home residents died in NY or NYC hospitals, because the state has only reported the "confirmed covid" at-hospital deaths. To your point, how many more could it possibly be? No matter what, we're left with an astounding number of "extra" deaths. Who were those people, why were they in the hospital, and what happened to them in the hospital?
Reminder: There were no 3rd-party witnesses to the in-hospital and in-nursing home facility deaths.
A follow-up - The LA nursing home link was very helpful in calibrating expectations. Also my tossed-off thoughts about nursing homes not driving deaths didn't make a lot of sense. Overall it does appear that the attack rate in nursing homes was extremely high in many places, but to start with LA, there were very few deaths in California in 2020, so that's a big problem with linking the virus to deaths in other places.
In New Jersey, with surveys being done sort of through the winter wave so it's not a perfect look at the previous spring wave, still 67 to 75% seropositive in residents over 65. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10900-022-01104-5
In London, earlier, 80% residents - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30341-2/fulltext
- So a nearly 100% attack rate in NYC nursing homes (explaining lack of waves afterward) seems totally plausible. The virus infected everyone. Whether it's what killed people or not.
Attack rate of what?
It's impossible to make the argument that a virus that showed itself nowhere in mortality data prior to human interventions is responsible for the mass casualty event we witnessed in spring 2020. NYC is the best example of this. https://twitter.com/EWoodhouse7/status/1628591291075289089?s=20
Italy as well https://pandauncut.substack.com/p/were-the-unprecedented-excess-deaths
The key lies in who was taken to hospitals in spring 2020, how many were taken, and why. https://twitter.com/EWoodhouse7/status/1642747747370508288?s=20 Cities like NYC, Chicago, and New Orleans have large, govt-dependent populations in congregate settings, public housing. https://twitter.com/EWoodhouse7/status/1642747747370508288?s=20
L.A. vs NYC is instructive, not as an example of "virus spread" but of susceptibility of people in given conditions to panic. Note when L.A. hospital inpatient really started to rise -- and when NYC rose again: when mass vaccination began.
The NJ and London studies suffer from the same problem many studies do -- reliance on a bad case definition.
Speaking of England, sudden viral spread doesn't look like this: https://twitter.com/EWoodhouse7/status/1642759650872262656?s=20 Policy and protocol malfeasance do.
The virus's pre-vax IFR estimates are a hot mess due to human intervention deaths (example: https://twitter.com/EWoodhouse7/status/1631509533565628417?s=20) being covered in PCR positives.
We get closer to the truth by starting with the null hypothesis ("The natural course of Covid caused no excess deaths") than we do by starting with the assumption that it caused most.
LA comment:
LA county has plenty of dependent elderly Asians and Hispanics, I don't know the numbers I just know you see them everywhere; and the panic here was just as extreme as anywhere, so if you find high seroprevalance in LA before the vax it complicates both theories.
If virus, why didn't kill?
If reaction to virus, why didn't kill?
Note, however, that the "if virus" problem has a possible answer in the form of B.1 / D614G - so the virus we got in spring 2020 was different than what Europe and NYC got. B.1 hits us in the winter, and that's when there are some deaths (though still not as many as NYC, again, I am not discounting localized mistreatment "culls" as an important factor). Winter wave deaths are in reversal by actual roll-out of the vaccine here, which was on the slower side. Nor did we get a spring 2021 Alpha wave despite the vaccines (compare huge difference with Michigan, which was closer to Canada).
I was mostly setting the etiology question aside. If the null hypothesis is that the virus did not drive deaths, that would imply policy and reaction drove deaths. However, policy and reaction driving deaths does not itself affirm the null hypothesis. I.e., there are knife murders does not mean there are not gun murders, they are not mutually exclusive.
Further, certain 'assumptions' are reasonable. I know that modern medicine is bent on artificially prolonging death as long as possible. Humans aren't allowed to get sick from regular bacterial pneumonia, die from cancer, diabetes - all of which leads to a lot of people only being alive in spring 2020 because some patchwork of interventions had been developed for whatever would have killed them. It is reasonable to assume a new viral pneumonia would kill (setting aside the question of whether there should be new viral pneumonias outside of influenza A subtype switches). It's just as "disruptive" as isolation, movement, etc., on these vulnerable groups. Like I said, it could have been both.
I have another comment about LA but I don't want to bind it up with this one.
"but not how many nursing home residents total died in hospitals."
And how they died.
Get the receipts on vents used, midazolam used, propofol used, morphine sulfite used etc.
In order to launch the shock-and-awe phase of the Covid Operation into the Western world it was necessary to create the illusion of a viral invasion.
To conjure a post-modern Potemkin plague you need to come up with the dead bodies. These iatrogenic deaths of fragile people were used to give the impression that there was “a deadly virus” circulating.
The only pandemic was one of violent government and biomedical assault against people.
The official narrative of "Covid" is a cold-blooded organized deception- all facets of it. There was no pandemic.
Well said
Sorry to drop this in here but I'm not on Twitter and want to send you a link that might be useful, in response to this thread: https://twitter.com/EWoodhouse7/status/1635856560026009600
There's a website in Ontario that's been tracking respiratory admissions across the provincial hospital system:
https://www.kflaphi.ca/aces-pandemic-tracker/
If you click on 'Data by Age Group' you can see data with or without CLI. Other useful info there too if you play around with the settings (including date range).
Cheers!
Thanks.
So many lies.
I too have to thank you for this.
For every question answered two more come up. Just fascinating.
All this begs the question...who are the people who benefitted from the pandemic and subsequent ‘measures’ over the past (going on) three years.
We have an idea, but will their ever be accountability and contrition?
I’d like the full truth first. :)
You might enjoy seeing this. We have a very different approach and focus on different periods, but it's another piece of the puzzle:
https://substack.pervaers.com/USA_Misc/78-95%3BCases_Accu_PerUninfected_Perc%3BD1_18-64_Accu_PerCumu8wAgo%3B10sec%3B1680169304752.mp4
Just started working on an article about this.
Is the word "morality" meant to be mortality. It seems that either may fit.
Related to the discrepancy in numbers, I don't know if you already have https://www.osc.state.ny.us/files/state-agencies/audits/pdf/sga-2022-20s55.pdf
"Report 2020-S-55"
"The Department, as a result, was not transparent in its reporting of Covid-19 deaths at nursing homes. Whether due to the poor-quality data that it was collecting initially or, later, a deliberate decision, for certain periods during the pandemic, the Department understated the number of deaths at nursing homes by as much as 50% [that's pretty similar to the difference in the HDNY in-home Covid deaths and the CDC in-home all-cause deaths; however this is extending to all of 2020]
From April 12, 2020 to February 3, 2021, the Department frequently changed its basis for the public reporting of Covid-19 deaths in nursing homes (e.g., reporting only resident deaths that occurred at the nursing home vs. reporting all deaths regardless of where they occurred, such as at a hospital), with virtually no explanation publicly as to why it changed.*
All told, for the nearly 10-month period from April 2020 to February 2021, the Department failed to account for approximately 4,100 lives lost due to Covid-19."
*around page 17/18 it gets to how these changes seem to have been to improve NY's ranking in nursing home deaths, by simply omitting in-hospital ones around the time of certain reports
Yes, I know the report well. It has serious flaws, but regardless, the data source it’s referencing is the HDNY data file.
CDC WONDER place of death data is the superior source. NY has a lot of explaining to do
Do you see that the numbers you're citing are NY state, not NYC?
There are issues all the way around, but I want to make sure you see that aspect.
Related: https://twitter.com/EWoodhouse7/status/1633339404990181379?s=20
Yes, but NYC (Queens Kings Bronx esp.) will drive most of the big swings in the state Health Department data
With respect to...mortality? I’m not following what you’re saying
Sigh we need datasets without suppressed values. It's ridiculous. We saw 100ks of preventable deaths and instead of tracking this down we are protecting dead peoples' privacy.
My research leads me to conclude that certain public health officials intentionally concealed evidence that the coronavirus was infecting many people as early as the fall of 2019. In this article, I list 27 ways officials likely accomplished this very important goal.
I don’t think any other Covid writer has looked at the question of HOW early spread was concealed from the public. And, in my opinion, officials HAD to conceal this evidence.
https://billricejr.substack.com/p/theory-officials-intentionally-concealed
What they're concealing is that SARS-CoV-2 isn't as deadly as advertised.
One problem with the Cuomo put a bunch of infectious people back in nursing homes and killed thousands argument is, that didn't happen in Michigan. I believe Illinois and Washington had a similar nursing homes rule, and they also didn't have the mass of deaths that New York and bordering states had.
The key states/cities sent their NH residents to the hospitals and pretended more of them died at the nursing homes.
That’s what is so ironic about New York. Cuomo knew, I think, that the hospitals were where the mass death had really occurred, but couldn’t throw doctors and admins under the bus.
Pennsylvania also had a granny killing governor.
Indeed, but again, where did they die? And how?
Do you know?
Covid positive patients were released from the hospital and sent back to the nursing home to infect others.
The data I posted challenges that narrative
I'm referring to PA.
If you have the state's nursing home resident death count for spring 2020 or for 2020 (weekly data is best), go ahead and post the link, and I will check my theory in PA.
No, I don't.
PA is very corrupt.
Rachel Levine was the head of our Dept. of Health at the time.
Afraid only a "right to know" or a FOIA request will get the required data.
This was the worst case in PA that I know of...
https://www.wesa.fm/science-health-tech/2020-10-22/beaver-county-nursing-home-sued-over-severe-covid-19-outbreak