Is the Bergamo 2020 death curve more "modeled" than "measured"?

The official numbers still seem implausible

Official statistics for Bergamo Province (Italy) claim that 5,000 more deaths than expected occurred in March 2020. The excess mortality could not have been caused by a spreading novel coronavirus and the event curve appears to be a distortion in magnitude, timing, or both.

One reason to suspect all-cause mortality fraud is that the event spike simply l…