Yes, We Believe the Bergamo (Italy) All-Cause Death Curve is Fraudulent

Together with NYC, the Twin Peaks of Data Engineering which drove the pandemic narrative

A few people have made us aware that a German analyst named Tom Lausen is saying he believes the spring 2020 Bergamo (Italy) death spike is “faked” (see the thread here). This is akin to, but not exactly the same as, what we have both asserted about New York City curves — and now suspect of other locations, including Bergamo.¹

Jonathan & a PANDA colleague explained two years ago why curves in the Lombardy region of Northern Italy - including that of Bergamo - could not have been the work of a spreading deadly pathogen but the response thereto.

In this piece, Jonathan notes especially the extreme synchronicity of the mortality curves between the different regions of Lombardy (of which Bergamo is one part), as well as the lack of anything unusual happening during the period of purported “pre-pandemic spread”:

The Lombardy Analysis

This was followed a month later by a longer piece which contained a geo-spatial analysis of deaths in Northern Italy, which made the point that there appeared to a lack of evidence for something spreading in Spring 2020:

Were the unprecedented excess deaths curves in Northern Italy in spring 2020 caused by the spread of a novel deadly virus?

At that time, Jonathan believed that the curves must have been iatrogenic in nature, but had not then considered that they could (also) have been fraudulent.

Jessica agrees that any genuine excess was iatrogenic and not caused by un nuovo agente patogeno.

We are now both of the view that it looks as if the Bergamo curve is a distortion of magnitude and/or timing, and this article presents the case for that.

In a future article, evidence for the iatrogenic deaths (to the extent they are genuine) being democidal will be presented.

Definition

Like New York, we contend Bergamo’s all-cause death data are manipulated. By that, we mean

the number of people claimed to have died on one or more days (beyond a reasonable margin for mis-recorded day of death) is false such that it is a deliberate, uncorrected, fraudulent misrepresentation of what occurred on the ground, in real-time.

As explained in The F Word, this would not necessarily mean we are looking at deaths that have been fabricated, i.e., made-up for people who never existed and/or digits added/removed to a dataset such that the total reported as having occurred on one or more days is false because they are not all attached to authentic death certificates for once-living people.

Faking deaths might be simple but is risky in the event of an audit, unless a true error/mistake can be blamed or you’re a country where death numbers have been fudged regularly without the populace realizing it – which means you’ve had a lot of practice and have proven it can be done “successfully”.² Other plausible techniques Jessica has described elsewhere involve deaths that occurred at some point in time or occurred more than once and have been moved, held back, reclassified or “stolen”, double-counted, or displaced. None of these would be difficult in the digital age – especially in jurisdictions where individual death records are not subject to public disclosure.

On a recent podcast, Jessica tried to show very simply what she believes was done via digital legerdemain to help create an artificial presentation of deaths, using the NYC graph, hand motions, and a *sound effect* to illustrate the concept, and make abundantly clear leave no one guessing about the hypothesis being proposed.

At this point, anyone who doesn’t look at the Bergamo spike and question its veracity as an event that’s even possible in the real world is simply not grasping the scale and speed of what it purports. Sticking with the idea that this must have happened as presented because government data for all-cause mortality is stable and reliable over time is a bold stance for any serious analyst to take with an event that is such an obvious outlier.

Back to Bergamo…

Many of the reasons for believing the Bergamo curve is fraudulent are the same as/similar to those given for New York City. The relative magnitude of Bergamo’s event is higher than New York’s (and much, much higher than Chicago’s), and for that reason alone, even more suspicious.

In “Three Cities, Same Virus?” Jessica hypothesized that the speed and steepness of curves in Northern Italy and New York could include deaths that occurred in earlier weeks or months and were “pushed forward” into the spikes - which would not mean there was no excess during the reported wave:

Fraudulent schemes would not mean that thousands of iatrogenic deaths didn’t occur in the spring weeks; rather, it would mean curves were tampered with and do not accurately represent deaths that actually occurred on each day (and only on one day and/or only in one place).

To date, we have been unable to find any historical event in a city, country, or province that exhibits the characteristics manifest in the Bergamo and New York curves.³ It is also a struggle to explain why curves with that kind of rise, fall, and shape make any sense at all – whatever the forces.

A base-to-peak increase of 115% in 39 days - like Chicago reported - is believable.⁴ Increases of 740% (New York) and almost 1000% (Bergamo) in less than a month are not and demand the release of death records and names to the public simply on the basis of being so outrageously high. Those who are convinced these events did happen as presented should be as concerned about the lack of proof - and lack of investigative interest on the part of authorities - as those who are skeptical.

Other Reasons to Believe Bergamo is Fraudulent

Here’s what we also see with Bergamo, a province of 1.1 million residents which ‘normally’ experiences 20-50 deaths a day (daily average in 2019 = 28/day). Whereas some analysts may interpret these things only as signs a spreading pathogen can’t be blamed for deaths, we view many as reasons to suspect the event data have been manipulated and constitute a fraudulent presentation of what happened.

1. Prima Facie Artificiality

Looking at four years of death data with the six-week spike removed makes the artificiality of the event abundantly clear.

Autumn 2019 and early 2020 deaths are on the low side and still within a normal range but (as  hypothesized earlier) could have been held back or stolen and dumped into the spike.

Other aspects of artificiality are

• the absence of a more gradual rise in deaths consistent with the expectation a virus “spreads” rather than drops like a fireball, i.e., Jonathan’s metaphor.

• the death rise occurring only after the first case (positive test) is announced.

• deaths dropping to baseline mid-April — and staying there — with no further increases and no deficit consistent with a “pull-forward effect” ( i.e., a period of below-normal death created by the deaths of those who would have died in the weeks and months following the event but whose vulnerabilities expedited their deaths in the spring).⁵

It’s our understanding that the lack of ‘pull-forward effect’ is one of the things Tom Lausen is emphasizing as a sign the death spike total is “faked” (To this he has added a number of other interesting observations about events “on the ground”, for example in a much-shared video of a coffin being moved in Bergamo in Spring 2020, it is being carried by just 2 people, which does not seem realistic at all.)

We agree that this is one of the red flags. Looking at other daily death curves ‘under’ the all-cause curve’ would be helpful and informative. With New York, some post-spike deficits can be seen when looking at deaths by age groups and settings of death, though not to the extent a 27,000-death event could be expected to generate.⁶ Likewise, some NYC curves remained elevated in 2020 - such as deaths among middle aged adults and cardiac arrests pronounced dead at point of ambulance dispatch - and yet did not impact the all-cause death level.

Daily time-series data of various kinds for Bergamo province is needed for both comparative purposes with New York and to support (or refute) the artificiality of the curve.

2. Lack of excess co-incidental to COVID shot/booster deployment

New York’s curve enters excess territory again in early 2021, and then again during the so-called Omicron wave. Bergamo’s, by contrast, does not. This poses a challenge to analysts who say the COVID shot is a driver of excess mortality (or is correlated with periods of excess) because shot uptake among Bergamo residents is fairly high.

COVID shot uptake for Bergamo Province, Italy. Data in table retrieved from this file in January 2024 when this tweet was posted.

The lack of excess after the spring 2020 spike in Bergamo is equally problematic for anyone who thinks SARS-CoV-2 and its ‘variants’ created excess waves in many places. Arguably, someone with a herd immunity/pro-vaccine point of view might counter with a hypothesis along these lines:

• the virus hit Bergamo like a bomb for biological and/or due to reasons we can’t explain,

• it took out everyone it was going to take out and provided natural immunity for those ‘infected’ at the time,

• other harmful restrictions were lifted and/or ignored (e.g., cultural resistance/distrust of government was beneficial⁷),

• the shot was protective for everyone else who remained at risk.

Such reasoning ignores the dearth of qualitative evidence substantiating an event that may exceed what any province in Italy has reported experiencing over a period of weeks in a summer heat wave or during a war since the advent of contemporary death-record keeping and data-reporting.

Building off of what Jessica has posited for New York, imagine there was excess after the death spike in 2020 and/or at various points in 2021 and 2022. Those deaths could have been entered into record-keeping systems as having occurred in spring 2020 rather than when they actually did, or recorded as having occurred elsewhere in the Lombardy region or country. In other words, the spike had to be legitimized with real people who really died, and the only way to accomplish that was by “feeding” the later deaths into the Main Event death period. We find that scenario no less plausible than arguments presuming a biological bomb went off and mRNA shots worked wonders.

3. Lack of Corroboration for Decedent Management

With help from a farmer friend who understands manual labor, Jessica has repeatedly emphasized that the task of managing the number of decedents of the order of what it claimed for NYC - in hospitals especially - is not only incredible to consider from a manpower point of view, but is uncorroborated by photos, videos, or eyewitness testimony. (There is nothing remarkable whatsoever about a few bodies being placed into a trailer or line of trucks parked at a stadium.⁸ )

The same is true for Bergamo. Six thousand-plus extra bodies handled in two months is hard to hide and should be the subject of documentaries, books, and in-depth qualitative research, yet is not, to our knowledge.

We don’t have place/setting of death data for Bergamo (i.e., where people died - hospital, care home, personal residence etc), but the most deaths in a day Bergamo reports seeing since January 2011 and before March 2020 was 51.

Then, the Province reports, there were 28 days straight of deaths in the triple digits. Are there actual records that can substantiate this event, or did it happen only in a spreadsheet?

It does not take advanced degrees to grasp the audacity of what is being alleged.

Reacting to the graph above, one follower said,

None of this makes sense. If it was that acutely deadly, why would the curve look like this?

And if this is real, why didn't it look like this everywhere? If it's that deadly, it wouldn't drop off like that.

And if it's mild, it wouldn't spike like that. Maybe....hoax.....

Arne Christensen observed,

Specifically, the large, exceptional increase on Thursday March 19 is hard to square with the idea of a respiratory virus taking ~two weeks to turn from an infection to a mortal illness.

We agree but go further to assert it doesn’t square with the idea of any force or forces, especially given the lack of other evidence regarding body management and disposition (i.e., where the body ended up and in what “state” - burial, cremation, etc.).

Information provided by Tomasso Zanini, who lives elsewhere in Northern Italy and with whom we have both spoken via Zoom, paints a picture of bodies being moved out of Bergamo and buried elsewhere in the country - some without their loved ones having confirmed their deaths or known their final destination:

I can affirm for certain that many of the people from Bergamo who died there have been buried in cemeteries across Italy, including some in my city.

…Concerning the bodies: by mid-March the order was to collect the bodies and bring them to incinerate them elsewhere. It then took months for the families to have proper burials and rites, and many had to travel to other places in northern Italy to visit their dead.

Like New York, the Bergamo event is very high on spectacle and low on actual proof of the purported magnitude. Names, death certificates, and other corroboration are needed to substantiate what’s being claimed.

It is very possible that bans on funerals in Bergamo (and elsewhere) enacted purportedly to prevent “spread” were also instituted to keep people from seeing how many people were not dying.⁹

4. Appearance of Being a Model

There is no getting around that the Bergamo and New York City curves look like models. Putting it simply, they just don’t seem real.

Indeed, they do not, and applying increasingly acrobatic adjustments to the epidemiological conjectures supposed by the SIR/SEIR/SEIRS paradigms won’t make them so. In our opinion, these are nothing less than Twin Peaks of Data-Engineering Feats predicated on decades of false claims & faulty assumptions, and fully realized only with the help of coordinated fraud.¹⁰

We already know the Johns Hopkins University dashboard was used to make people think real-time death reporting is possible when it’s no such thing.¹¹ Even the operators had difficulty with the addition of “probable” COVID deaths.¹²

We are deeply suspicious of New York’s sixteen days of consecutive increases in daily deaths - which may be a previously unobserved phenomenon in modern death-recording. Bergamo shows 12 days of consecutive increases but also lacks stochastic properties of expected and observed death patterns, including seasonal waves influenced by respiratory illness and other phenomena or incidents known to impact the number of deaths over more than one day in a specific location (e.g., earthquakes, hurricanes, heat waves, power outages).¹³ It is not difficult to imagine whatever operation(s) were involved - be it military, other intelligence agencies, private industries, etc. - failing to think about either the precedents or practical implications of their designs.

It is interesting that the 16 March 2020 Imperial College predicted death curves for Great Britain and US in a if-we-do-nothing-scenario look somewhat similar to the NYC and Bergamo events.

We should hesitate to compare projections for countries with “actuals” of smaller geographic areas but @OxfordsAnthony’s points about the comparative speed, duration, and height are correct. Although he is right they could be used to “validate” the models,  they are perhaps more suggestive of the events being designed in advance or after the fact to “fit” both events to predictions.

The Devil’s Advocate may counter:

1. Aren’t things like the lack of gradual rise, sudden drop, and missing subsequent deficit fairly obvious fraud signals — too obvious for Digital Magicians to expect to get away with?

2. Doesn’t the spike have to be genuine — surely no one’s ego is big enough to engineer all-cause death data with high-profile events…right?

Given the manifest hubris involved with the COVID Event and the entire pandemic/bioterrorism preparedness industry - we lean toward “No” for the first question and “Wrong” for the second.

Some pandemic ghost stories and pandemic influenza predictions envisioned a one-time, burn-through-the-population event in certain locations.¹⁴ There was (and still is) incentive to make it look as though a deadly spreading pathogen can drop like a bomb on a few ‘unprepared’ places (including Iran), do its thing, and be done. Such an effort would want to make it appear as though all excess deaths were not people who weren’t already going to die in the next few months - because that’s how deadly and fast the Scary Virus to needed to seem.

We submit that Bergamo and New York were supposed to be the If You Do Nothing exemplars.¹⁵ On the flip-side, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, Hawaii were staged as paragons of Doing the Right Thing to Keep the Virus at Bay While Awaiting a Vaccine. Places like the Seattle (WA) area - which didn’t see much excess at all in spring 2020, despite being the site of the “first” COVID case in the U.S. in January - were archetypes for Doing the Right Thing After Initially Doing the Wrong Thing.

Why More, Not Fewer?

“What I don’t get,” it might be asked, “is why would the government want to say there were more deaths. It makes them look bad. Why not lie and say there were fewer?”

One obvious answer is that the WHO and public-private partnerships needed healthcare workers and the public to be anxious enough to obey restrictions and believe a “vaccine” was needed.

It seems unlikely that governing officials, Pharma, et al cared if the outliers looked ridiculous. Bergamo and New York (for example) served their purposes. They knew the armchair analysts and academic statisticians weren’t going to get super granular anyway - at least not in 2020 - and would hang out with country-level and other data that isn’t focused on what was (or wasn’t) happening in specific locations used to kick off the operation.

So, they took their chances, contrived Faucian Fantasies based on estimates derived from the 1918 Spanish Flu event and impossible worst-case scenarios, and kept the most basic questions about SARS-CoV-2 at bay with distractions like Nursing Home Policy! Different Strain! Chinese Workers in Milan! and The Subway System!

Early studies from well-credentialed scientists also helped ‘prove’ to the public in the moment that a virus had seized a few places and the rest of us were doomed to suffer the same fate if we didn’t ‘learn the lessons’ of Italy and New York.

The Powers that Be knew that citizens of Western countries neither trust nor care too much about whatever China says is happening in their country with a SARS-like illness. Italy was the bridge - and helped scare/psy-op healthcare workers in Europe and the U.S. - and New York City sealed the deal: A one-two punch that was almost impossible to see clearly at the time.

Hindsight is, quite literally, 2020.

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Related:

1. e.g., other NYC Metro counties, Madrid, London, Manuas (Brazil). Jessica has also said lack of excess in certain cities could be a sign of fraud and does not assume that Berlin, Sydney, and Auckland, for example, saw normal or below-normal death in the first six months of 2020.

2. After seeing governing authorities use data to mislead the public extensively during the COVID Era, we would not put any country past this. Jessica has speculated that New York City’s annual death data raise the question of whether a “save up to spend down later” approach was used in anticipation of a staged event. See number 8 in this response to Denis Rancourt.

3. A 2003 heat wave in France may be an exception, as explained here.

4. But still not the work of a spreading coronavirus.

5. Jessica has thought of this previously as people who were “statistically-scheduled to die” dying sooner than they might have.

6. Example: https://x.com/Wood_House76/status/1835421618535022941

7. e.g., along the lines of what a restaurant server from Turin, Italy relayed to Jessica & her spouse https://www.woodhouse76.com/p/conversation-with-a-london-server and what Kevin Bardosh & colleagues found in remote southwestern Haiti: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37441975/

8. Most of which went unused, per records obtained from FEMA: https://www.woodhouse76.com/p/fema-records-confirm-it-sent-refrigerated

9. As this HART Group article reported - and The New York Times' ‘Incalculable Loss” propaganda shows - obituary/death notice data gives us good reasons to demand proof. COVID-19 Funeral Assistance data is also illustrative.

10. From Eleven Serious Problems with the New York City Spring 2020 Mass Casualty Event:“The fact that the New York and Bergamo curves look so similar is not evidence of the same viral pathogen attacking both locations with the same fervor but of implementing the same iatrogenic measures and (in my opinion) data engineering feats.”

11. Faked Figures’ That Drove the World’s Reaction to COVID (Martin Neil) | The Dashboard that Ruled the World (Thomas Verduyn)

12. https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-a-johns-hopkins-professor-and-her-chinese-students-tracked-coronavirus-11589016603

13. See also related thread.

14. See projections from NYC pandemic influenza mass fatality management plan and corresponding observations: https://www.woodhouse76.com/p/the-f-word

15. Same could be said of other places with suspiciously high and fast death curves in spring of 2020, e.g., Madrid, London, Manaus.