In June 2018, CDC recommended a live attenuated flu vaccine to be used during 2018-2019 flu season. ACIP had voted down its use in 2016. Remember that 65+ usually has high coverage for vaccines, especially toward the older years because nursing homes make it a requirement.
Interestingly, if you look at Alzheimer's vs flu/pneumonia as cause of death for older age groups, you see a marked rise in Alzheimer's in 2014 onward, and a notable decrease in flu/pneumonia deaths
yes, quadrivalent was introduced earlier, but was it the live attenuated form? that it was dismissed for use as LAIV in 2016-2017 suggested to me that LAIV wasn't/isn't always used. i haven't done much digging as i am lazy at reading the FDA filings (in part because I also just don't trust them, see pfizer data dump).
Interesting, I hadn't sliced it for that age group like this.
I suspect the signal may be weak enough we might find similar patterns running this back 2 or 3 decades. Maybe. Wonder if MEEP has already done that to save us the trouble?
Are you leaning into the Baric/NC leak theory with this?
Baric/NC has been my theory for awhile - and the possibility of different leaks in different countries - but I don’t claim any special knowledge besides common sense & curiosity.
Viruses aren’t bombs. And they don’t explode everywhere all at once.
You’re correct that this increase is not massive…and could well be a recurring pattern due to chance, a growing population among older age groups, etc.
But I’m also of the mind that this is exactly what we would see with the *arrival* of a virus that is comparably deadly to a bad flu for a sick, elderly person, with the healthy and normal circulation of other viruses effectively acting as a shield.
If lab leak, which is most probable, Baric did this one way or another. Either directly from his own labs and research pursuits, or the satellite labs using his methods and techniques.
You should read Dan Werb's "The Invisible Siege". I'm pretty sure Baric himself ghostwrote it, as it is a celebration of his genius, yet comes off as a confessional. Reminds me of OJ's "If I did it".
I wonder if flu vaccines changed substantially between 2017 and 2019. https://www.immunize.org/timeline/
In June 2018, CDC recommended a live attenuated flu vaccine to be used during 2018-2019 flu season. ACIP had voted down its use in 2016. Remember that 65+ usually has high coverage for vaccines, especially toward the older years because nursing homes make it a requirement.
I commented about this on Twitter a bit. Ethical Skeptic has too.
This vaccine was introduced in 2014 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/quadrivalent.htm
Interestingly, if you look at Alzheimer's vs flu/pneumonia as cause of death for older age groups, you see a marked rise in Alzheimer's in 2014 onward, and a notable decrease in flu/pneumonia deaths
yes, quadrivalent was introduced earlier, but was it the live attenuated form? that it was dismissed for use as LAIV in 2016-2017 suggested to me that LAIV wasn't/isn't always used. i haven't done much digging as i am lazy at reading the FDA filings (in part because I also just don't trust them, see pfizer data dump).
Have you read this?
https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/health/outbreak-investigation-assisted-living-facility-springfield
Yes.
Interesting, I hadn't sliced it for that age group like this.
I suspect the signal may be weak enough we might find similar patterns running this back 2 or 3 decades. Maybe. Wonder if MEEP has already done that to save us the trouble?
Are you leaning into the Baric/NC leak theory with this?
Baric/NC has been my theory for awhile - and the possibility of different leaks in different countries - but I don’t claim any special knowledge besides common sense & curiosity.
Viruses aren’t bombs. And they don’t explode everywhere all at once.
You’re correct that this increase is not massive…and could well be a recurring pattern due to chance, a growing population among older age groups, etc.
But I’m also of the mind that this is exactly what we would see with the *arrival* of a virus that is comparably deadly to a bad flu for a sick, elderly person, with the healthy and normal circulation of other viruses effectively acting as a shield.
If lab leak, which is most probable, Baric did this one way or another. Either directly from his own labs and research pursuits, or the satellite labs using his methods and techniques.
You should read Dan Werb's "The Invisible Siege". I'm pretty sure Baric himself ghostwrote it, as it is a celebration of his genius, yet comes off as a confessional. Reminds me of OJ's "If I did it".
Remember, too, the key is an off-season rise. Not simply a rise.