Note: China reports first Covid death on January 11, 2020. Many people now say the virus was spreading by at least November 2019, but there's other reports that say the virus "escaped" in September 2019.
That would mean there were several months with no known "Covid deaths" in Wuhan or the entire country of China. Even by the end of January, China reported only a small number of deaths (in a city of 13 million people and a country of 1.4 billion people).
Compare and contrast to the 20,000 or so deaths that were said to happen in New York City in approximately two months. The first reported "case" in America was January 19, but the Red Cross antibody study (and other cases) strongly suggest the virus was being transmitted at least in November 2019 if not October.
So why didn't this "deadly" virus wait so many months and then - all of a sudden, in the Spring of 2020 - kill 20,000 people in NYC?
Is the virus more deadly in some cities? If so, why?
I know. And "many people say there was no novel virus" ... and you're one of those people :)
You may be right. Or I may be right. Either way, there was no "deadly" virus that justified lockdowns and a new unsafe and non-effective non-vaccine.
How do we know the Red Cross study is "not a demonstration of transmission?" Did the CDC interview the 106 people who tested positive for antibodies and ask them if anyone else in their families got sick at the same time they might have gotten sick? Answer: No (which is interesting in and of itself).
An antibody study of archived blood in, I think, France also found hundreds of "early" positive AB results. Those researchers DID interview some of those people and most of them said they WERE sick. Furthermore, many said other people in their households also got sick with the same symptoms at the same time, a detail which connotes virus transmission.
As you know, I look at weekly ILI reports, school closings, Reader Comment anecdotes, etc. to try to try to find out if larger numbers of people were "getting sick" and if these outbreaks of ILI caused many other people to become sick at the same time. Basically, I think if, say, three people in one household got sick with the same symptoms at the same time ... or, say, 25 percent of students and staffers at one school all got sick at the same time with the same symptoms, this might represent a "spreading" virus.
Of course, there's no way to measure "transmission" from PCR tests or AB tests in November, December 2019 and January 2020 because those tests were not being given to anyone.
You couldn't interview specific people about "symptoms" based on a waste water study.
"There was no novel virus" actually does NOT capture my position, so please allow me to explain, for the sake of my readers and your clarity:
My position is that there was no risk-additive coronavirus suddenly spreading from person to person in late 2019/early 2020. I have been saying this since the first half of 2023, at least.
Whatever was being tested for a coming back positive -- and classified a SARSr-CoV, then named SARS-CoV-2 may have been "new" to discovery but was not new to the animal kingdom, included humans.
The ICTV-CSG felt the same way, as their emails show and the initial draft of their paper also revealed.
It does not matter if family members get sick at the same time. That isn't evidence of something that is transmitting from person to person. For the record, me and my family of four have never been sick at the same time. Most ever was n=2 -- and that wasn't my husband and I who (needless to say) come into close contact on a daily basis.
Testing positive for a particular virus does not preclude the presence of other pathogens/causes, nor does it establish a link between a single pathogen and an illness.
Regarding schools, the more common culprit would be something food related or based via bathrooms, i.e., norovirus.
Thanks for clarifying. My family is different than your family. There's been several times I've gotten very sick when someone else in my family - or multiple other people - got sick at the exact same time with the exact same symptoms. You might say this was something food-related or spread via our bathroom except for the fact that hundreds (thousands?) of people in our community happened to get sick at the same time with the same symptoms - and didn't use our bathroom or eat the same foods we did.
For example, I got sick in January 2020 with ALL the "Covid symptoms." It was just a coincidence that my two children also got sick at the exact same time and about 15-to-30 percent of students and teachers in Troy City Schools got sick at the same time?
When I was sick as a dog in bed that week, my wife (a high school teacher) came home from school one day and told me "half" of one of her four classes was absent that day (15 of 30 students). She said the school was like a ghost town and principals couldn't find enough substitutes.
An outbreak this severe has never happened in this school system to my knowledge. I also note the exact same thing was happening at numerous other schools and towns in SE Alabama. I don't think it's a logical fallacy to reach the conclusion that some "sickness" was "spreading." Everybody got a food-borne illness at the same time? 5-G radiation suddenly struck everyone in SE Alabama at the same time? I don't think so.
Of course, none of these people could get a PCR test in January 2020. I know from my reporting and from interviews with doctors and administrators that the vast majority of people who went to the doctor ... tested negative for influenza (my doctor, whose office was swamped, told me this). Covid became the Big World Story and Panic 5 to 8 weeks later. I don't think it's a big stretch to postulate a virus was spreading a little sooner than the experts said.
... One question I keep asking is how would anyone "prove" a novel virus was being transmitted person-to-person in November 2019 through, say, February 2020?
You couldn't go back in a time machine and give people who were possible "early cases" a PCR test. Almost no one got an antibody test until late April 2020.
However, the CDC COULD have interviewed Mayor Michael Melham and Tim and Brandie McCain. All three of these AB-positive sick people report many other people in their close contacts who became sick with the exact same symptoms at the same time they were sick. Tim and Brandie weren't the only people who were sick. Their two kids were sick, their roommate (who never got an AB test) was very sick, Brandie's boss was sick and Brandie told me, "It seems like half of Sylacauga, Alabama was sick at the same time."
Mayor Melham first had symptoms at a Municipal Conference in Atlantic City held Nov. 19-21, 2019. In numerous articles and interviews, Melham said that "many" people got sick at the same conference. He knows this, because these people later contacted him after he went public with his claim that he thinks he had Covid in November.
Melham tested positive for antibodies twice and Brandie McCain tested positive three times. It still baffles me why no public health officials even bothered to interview them - or do "contact tracing" and find other people who might have been sick at the same time and given them AB tests.
That is, officials probably could have "proved" the virus was "spreading." Just the fact the McCains had (possible Covid) in tiny, rural Sylacauga, Ala. and Melham was sick and tested positive for ABs in New Jersey suggests a virus that was "spreading" as those two states are a 1,000 miles from each other.
... Still, none of these people died - so this possible novel virus was not "deadly." It definitely seems to have been extremely contagious though.
Playing devil's advocate, do you know of any way that might "prove" a novel virus was spreading - or being transmitted from one person to another - between November 2019 and the end of January 2020?
You can't prove it ... but I don't think you can disprove it either.
All we can really do is look at people who had these symptoms and speculate on whether they had Covid or not.
But we agree on the main point - It wasn't Covid that killed all these people between late March and May 2020.
Note: China reports first Covid death on January 11, 2020. Many people now say the virus was spreading by at least November 2019, but there's other reports that say the virus "escaped" in September 2019.
That would mean there were several months with no known "Covid deaths" in Wuhan or the entire country of China. Even by the end of January, China reported only a small number of deaths (in a city of 13 million people and a country of 1.4 billion people).
Compare and contrast to the 20,000 or so deaths that were said to happen in New York City in approximately two months. The first reported "case" in America was January 19, but the Red Cross antibody study (and other cases) strongly suggest the virus was being transmitted at least in November 2019 if not October.
So why didn't this "deadly" virus wait so many months and then - all of a sudden, in the Spring of 2020 - kill 20,000 people in NYC?
Is the virus more deadly in some cities? If so, why?
"Many people" say a lot of things. :)
I say there was no novel virus spreading from person to person.
Escaped from where? Alcatraz?
The Red Cross study is not a demonstration of transmission. Nor is any wastewater study.
But yes that NYC/the Feds report 21K+ deaths in 11 weeks that list COVID-19 (u07.1) as underlying or contributing cause.
https://www.woodhouse76.com/p/three-cities-same-virus
I know. And "many people say there was no novel virus" ... and you're one of those people :)
You may be right. Or I may be right. Either way, there was no "deadly" virus that justified lockdowns and a new unsafe and non-effective non-vaccine.
How do we know the Red Cross study is "not a demonstration of transmission?" Did the CDC interview the 106 people who tested positive for antibodies and ask them if anyone else in their families got sick at the same time they might have gotten sick? Answer: No (which is interesting in and of itself).
An antibody study of archived blood in, I think, France also found hundreds of "early" positive AB results. Those researchers DID interview some of those people and most of them said they WERE sick. Furthermore, many said other people in their households also got sick with the same symptoms at the same time, a detail which connotes virus transmission.
As you know, I look at weekly ILI reports, school closings, Reader Comment anecdotes, etc. to try to try to find out if larger numbers of people were "getting sick" and if these outbreaks of ILI caused many other people to become sick at the same time. Basically, I think if, say, three people in one household got sick with the same symptoms at the same time ... or, say, 25 percent of students and staffers at one school all got sick at the same time with the same symptoms, this might represent a "spreading" virus.
Of course, there's no way to measure "transmission" from PCR tests or AB tests in November, December 2019 and January 2020 because those tests were not being given to anyone.
You couldn't interview specific people about "symptoms" based on a waste water study.
"There was no novel virus" actually does NOT capture my position, so please allow me to explain, for the sake of my readers and your clarity:
My position is that there was no risk-additive coronavirus suddenly spreading from person to person in late 2019/early 2020. I have been saying this since the first half of 2023, at least.
Whatever was being tested for a coming back positive -- and classified a SARSr-CoV, then named SARS-CoV-2 may have been "new" to discovery but was not new to the animal kingdom, included humans.
The ICTV-CSG felt the same way, as their emails show and the initial draft of their paper also revealed.
https://www.woodhouse76.com/p/the-sars-cov-2-name-game-long-read
https://sanityunleashed.substack.com/p/sars-cov-2-whats-in-a-name-everything
It does not matter if family members get sick at the same time. That isn't evidence of something that is transmitting from person to person. For the record, me and my family of four have never been sick at the same time. Most ever was n=2 -- and that wasn't my husband and I who (needless to say) come into close contact on a daily basis.
Testing positive for a particular virus does not preclude the presence of other pathogens/causes, nor does it establish a link between a single pathogen and an illness.
Regarding schools, the more common culprit would be something food related or based via bathrooms, i.e., norovirus.
Thanks for clarifying. My family is different than your family. There's been several times I've gotten very sick when someone else in my family - or multiple other people - got sick at the exact same time with the exact same symptoms. You might say this was something food-related or spread via our bathroom except for the fact that hundreds (thousands?) of people in our community happened to get sick at the same time with the same symptoms - and didn't use our bathroom or eat the same foods we did.
For example, I got sick in January 2020 with ALL the "Covid symptoms." It was just a coincidence that my two children also got sick at the exact same time and about 15-to-30 percent of students and teachers in Troy City Schools got sick at the same time?
When I was sick as a dog in bed that week, my wife (a high school teacher) came home from school one day and told me "half" of one of her four classes was absent that day (15 of 30 students). She said the school was like a ghost town and principals couldn't find enough substitutes.
An outbreak this severe has never happened in this school system to my knowledge. I also note the exact same thing was happening at numerous other schools and towns in SE Alabama. I don't think it's a logical fallacy to reach the conclusion that some "sickness" was "spreading." Everybody got a food-borne illness at the same time? 5-G radiation suddenly struck everyone in SE Alabama at the same time? I don't think so.
Of course, none of these people could get a PCR test in January 2020. I know from my reporting and from interviews with doctors and administrators that the vast majority of people who went to the doctor ... tested negative for influenza (my doctor, whose office was swamped, told me this). Covid became the Big World Story and Panic 5 to 8 weeks later. I don't think it's a big stretch to postulate a virus was spreading a little sooner than the experts said.
We keep having the same conversations over and over :)
... One question I keep asking is how would anyone "prove" a novel virus was being transmitted person-to-person in November 2019 through, say, February 2020?
You couldn't go back in a time machine and give people who were possible "early cases" a PCR test. Almost no one got an antibody test until late April 2020.
However, the CDC COULD have interviewed Mayor Michael Melham and Tim and Brandie McCain. All three of these AB-positive sick people report many other people in their close contacts who became sick with the exact same symptoms at the same time they were sick. Tim and Brandie weren't the only people who were sick. Their two kids were sick, their roommate (who never got an AB test) was very sick, Brandie's boss was sick and Brandie told me, "It seems like half of Sylacauga, Alabama was sick at the same time."
Mayor Melham first had symptoms at a Municipal Conference in Atlantic City held Nov. 19-21, 2019. In numerous articles and interviews, Melham said that "many" people got sick at the same conference. He knows this, because these people later contacted him after he went public with his claim that he thinks he had Covid in November.
Melham tested positive for antibodies twice and Brandie McCain tested positive three times. It still baffles me why no public health officials even bothered to interview them - or do "contact tracing" and find other people who might have been sick at the same time and given them AB tests.
That is, officials probably could have "proved" the virus was "spreading." Just the fact the McCains had (possible Covid) in tiny, rural Sylacauga, Ala. and Melham was sick and tested positive for ABs in New Jersey suggests a virus that was "spreading" as those two states are a 1,000 miles from each other.
... Still, none of these people died - so this possible novel virus was not "deadly." It definitely seems to have been extremely contagious though.
The burden of proof isn't on me.
I didn't make the claim that something was spreading.
Moreover, the "first" person-to-person transmission in the U.S. was no such thing. https://www.woodhouse76.com/p/questioning-the-first-known-person
They have literally lied about everything.
Playing devil's advocate, do you know of any way that might "prove" a novel virus was spreading - or being transmitted from one person to another - between November 2019 and the end of January 2020?
You can't prove it ... but I don't think you can disprove it either.
All we can really do is look at people who had these symptoms and speculate on whether they had Covid or not.
But we agree on the main point - It wasn't Covid that killed all these people between late March and May 2020.
The Devil doesn't need an advocate. :)
What is COVID?
I strongly suggest reading all documents in the previous article and associated timeline above.