Before all schools were closed, shouldn’t there have been drills like I experienced in elementary school ie hiding under our desks? That definitely would have protected the kids from the virus (probably as well as it would have protected from a nuclear attack).
My God, humans are so easily fooled,
scared and manipulated and some humans are so inherently evil
That's a good catch on the number of sedative drugs on hand or used or not used during the explosion of cases. Midazolam (sp?) and other sedative drugs go with putting someone on a ventilator, right? That is, to be put a patient on a ventilator, you also have to prescribe those drugs (which means you must have those drugs).
I also like your anecdote about the number of flu tests given in NYC in January (15,000). From one source (I've written about an analyzed), the number of "flu tests given" in America from Weeks 5 to 22 in 2020 was far greater than the six or seven previous flu seasons. This includes the terrible flu season of 2017-2018 (when most of the cases were in January 2018). Far more flu tests were given in the first weeks of 2020 than the first weeks of 2019.
I wish this source included data on the months of November and December so we could compare the earlier flu weeks from previous flu seasons.
Elevated ILI percentages (reported by the CDC and state health agencies), which were far above the historic "baseline" - suggest many more flu tests were being given across America than in previous flu seasons. This apparent fact hasn't gotten hardly any attention. To me, the "flu season" from Weeks 44 2019 through Week 22 2020, was significantly worse than even 2017-2018 (when there was only a big spike for about six weeks).
This said, the CDC later published "estimates" of "flu cases" for this flu season which were higher than normal, but not by as much as I would have expected given contemporaneous ILI reports and numerous media reports of severe flu outbreaks in virtually every state in the union.
The estimate of the number of "flu deaths" was much lower than the norm in 2019-2020.
Basically, I don't trust the CDC flu statistics or estimates any more than I trust the "Covid estimates." But the number of "flu tests given" is a good metric that might be fairly trust-worthy.
Yes, drugs are required for placing and keeping a patient on a ventilator. In a hospital setting, they aren't prescribed so much as directly used on/with the patient.
The flu test number for January is one week in January. Data obtained from NYC DOH via FOIA.
Re: flu tests given in America, the reason the 2019-2020 season was higher is because there was a sudden and still-unexplained burst of tests in March, just before the "disappearance." I would have to check my spreadsheet, but without the burst, the 2019-2020 was more comparable to 2017-2018 in terms of tests given. Also, the number of flu sentinel sites had been increasing every year, so adjustments should be made to account for the increase.
Re: "I wish this source included data on the months of November and December so we could compare the earlier flu weeks from previous flu seasons." Which source?
I'll email you a summary of "flu tests given" each week for about the six previous flu seasons. In looking at this document, I DID find data going back before Week 5 in January.
Most of the tests given in 2017-2018 were in January 2018. Far fewer tests were administered in December and then dramatically decreased around early to mid February - which was not the case in 2020.
The largest number of flu tests given in 2020 occurred before March 2020.
I intentionally "stopped" the 2020 at the end of Feb, with the intent of picking up there in the next article, which I drafted but still haven't finished.
The total number of flu tests given in 2019-2020 includes a sudden and strange spike in tests given in March. That - if I recall correctly - is a primary reason the total number of tests in 2019-2020 exceeds 2017-2018
In one of his stories, F. Scott Fitzgerald calls World War I "systematized hysteria." That's a good line.
Also, an essay from fall 1861 by Oliver Wendell Holmes, "Bread and the Newspaper," describes how the Civil War had changed New England society.
The entire essay is resonant with lockdowns. One example is Holmes writing about how "perpetual intercommunication, joined to the power of instantaneous action, keeps us always alive with excitement. . . almost hourly paragraphs, laden with truth or falsehood as the case may be, making us restless always for the last fact or rumor they are telling."
"What I am least sanguine about is that we are battling two things, a virus and fear and panic. And I'm as afraid of the fear and the panic as I am of the virus and I think that the fear is more contagious than the virus right now."
He is being disarmingly honest right here. Admitting that fear is the real virus?
2. Throughout the spring, Cuomo repeatedly delivered the message about fear being worse than the virus and New Yorkers making sure they didn't panic in his press conferences. He also spun a yarn about it in his book. I treat any claims/storylines delivered during the initial "emergency" period with a heavy dose of skepticism because there was so much control of messaging and messengers. It's easy to say "people were panicking" but more difficult to a) define panic in a way that distinguishes it from anxiety, fear, etc. b) prove/show in time series data that people were panicking, c) demonstrate panic led to specific and worse outcomes, and d) explain why panic would have been higher/greater in New York than in Chicago, London, etc.
3. Arguably, fear is always more contagious than a virus because we don't have proof that viruses are contagious or, in the case of SARS-CoV-2), that it was suddenly spreading from person to person. I don't disagree that fear and panic "spread" and are deadly in multiple ways.
Cuomo's book struck me as primarily an anti-Trump campaign document and possibly also a pro-Cuomo campaign document, should he run for president sometime. It was released on October 13 of 2020.
Cuomo, Trump, and Fauci are all from New York City. The battle between/among them may have been good for ratings but believe me when I say they are on the same team when it comes to protecting whatever occurred in their hometown.
Before all schools were closed, shouldn’t there have been drills like I experienced in elementary school ie hiding under our desks? That definitely would have protected the kids from the virus (probably as well as it would have protected from a nuclear attack).
My God, humans are so easily fooled,
scared and manipulated and some humans are so inherently evil
Duck and cover - coronavirus is coming.
That's a good catch on the number of sedative drugs on hand or used or not used during the explosion of cases. Midazolam (sp?) and other sedative drugs go with putting someone on a ventilator, right? That is, to be put a patient on a ventilator, you also have to prescribe those drugs (which means you must have those drugs).
I also like your anecdote about the number of flu tests given in NYC in January (15,000). From one source (I've written about an analyzed), the number of "flu tests given" in America from Weeks 5 to 22 in 2020 was far greater than the six or seven previous flu seasons. This includes the terrible flu season of 2017-2018 (when most of the cases were in January 2018). Far more flu tests were given in the first weeks of 2020 than the first weeks of 2019.
I wish this source included data on the months of November and December so we could compare the earlier flu weeks from previous flu seasons.
Elevated ILI percentages (reported by the CDC and state health agencies), which were far above the historic "baseline" - suggest many more flu tests were being given across America than in previous flu seasons. This apparent fact hasn't gotten hardly any attention. To me, the "flu season" from Weeks 44 2019 through Week 22 2020, was significantly worse than even 2017-2018 (when there was only a big spike for about six weeks).
This said, the CDC later published "estimates" of "flu cases" for this flu season which were higher than normal, but not by as much as I would have expected given contemporaneous ILI reports and numerous media reports of severe flu outbreaks in virtually every state in the union.
The estimate of the number of "flu deaths" was much lower than the norm in 2019-2020.
Basically, I don't trust the CDC flu statistics or estimates any more than I trust the "Covid estimates." But the number of "flu tests given" is a good metric that might be fairly trust-worthy.
Yes, drugs are required for placing and keeping a patient on a ventilator. In a hospital setting, they aren't prescribed so much as directly used on/with the patient.
The flu test number for January is one week in January. Data obtained from NYC DOH via FOIA.
Re: flu tests given in America, the reason the 2019-2020 season was higher is because there was a sudden and still-unexplained burst of tests in March, just before the "disappearance." I would have to check my spreadsheet, but without the burst, the 2019-2020 was more comparable to 2017-2018 in terms of tests given. Also, the number of flu sentinel sites had been increasing every year, so adjustments should be made to account for the increase.
Re: "I wish this source included data on the months of November and December so we could compare the earlier flu weeks from previous flu seasons." Which source?
I'll email you a summary of "flu tests given" each week for about the six previous flu seasons. In looking at this document, I DID find data going back before Week 5 in January.
Most of the tests given in 2017-2018 were in January 2018. Far fewer tests were administered in December and then dramatically decreased around early to mid February - which was not the case in 2020.
The largest number of flu tests given in 2020 occurred before March 2020.
I have the data.
Note the huge increase in "flu tests given" in 2019-2020 compared to the previous flu season.
Also, when comparing 2017-2018 to 2019-2020, note the vastly-larger number for 2019-2020 in the weeks before January.
Adjustments for the number of flu sentinels reporting - which increased each year (figure 1) - need to be made. I did that for ILI here: https://www.woodhouse76.com/p/setting-the-stage-for-flus-disappearing
I intentionally "stopped" the 2020 at the end of Feb, with the intent of picking up there in the next article, which I drafted but still haven't finished.
The total number of flu tests given in 2019-2020 includes a sudden and strange spike in tests given in March. That - if I recall correctly - is a primary reason the total number of tests in 2019-2020 exceeds 2017-2018
In one of his stories, F. Scott Fitzgerald calls World War I "systematized hysteria." That's a good line.
Also, an essay from fall 1861 by Oliver Wendell Holmes, "Bread and the Newspaper," describes how the Civil War had changed New England society.
The entire essay is resonant with lockdowns. One example is Holmes writing about how "perpetual intercommunication, joined to the power of instantaneous action, keeps us always alive with excitement. . . almost hourly paragraphs, laden with truth or falsehood as the case may be, making us restless always for the last fact or rumor they are telling."
"What I am least sanguine about is that we are battling two things, a virus and fear and panic. And I'm as afraid of the fear and the panic as I am of the virus and I think that the fear is more contagious than the virus right now."
He is being disarmingly honest right here. Admitting that fear is the real virus?
I have a slightly different take on that.
1. I don't think Cuomo was afraid at all. Don't forget this was the guy who won an Emmy for his COVID press conferences. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/21/937445923/andrew-cuomo-to-receive-international-emmy-for-masterful-covid-19-briefings He was armed with a script, as were others. I prefer the "You pick the 26,000 people who are going to die!" as the best example of Cuomo letting the cat out of the bag. :) https://www.woodhouse76.com/p/you-pick-the-26000-people-who-are His later "Who cares where they died?!" may turn out to be his most prophetic and revelatory word: https://nypost.com/2021/01/29/gov-cuomo-blames-politics-amid-covid-19-nursing-home-report/
2. Throughout the spring, Cuomo repeatedly delivered the message about fear being worse than the virus and New Yorkers making sure they didn't panic in his press conferences. He also spun a yarn about it in his book. I treat any claims/storylines delivered during the initial "emergency" period with a heavy dose of skepticism because there was so much control of messaging and messengers. It's easy to say "people were panicking" but more difficult to a) define panic in a way that distinguishes it from anxiety, fear, etc. b) prove/show in time series data that people were panicking, c) demonstrate panic led to specific and worse outcomes, and d) explain why panic would have been higher/greater in New York than in Chicago, London, etc.
3. Arguably, fear is always more contagious than a virus because we don't have proof that viruses are contagious or, in the case of SARS-CoV-2), that it was suddenly spreading from person to person. I don't disagree that fear and panic "spread" and are deadly in multiple ways.
Cuomo's book struck me as primarily an anti-Trump campaign document and possibly also a pro-Cuomo campaign document, should he run for president sometime. It was released on October 13 of 2020.
Yes, for sure.
Plus, staff began planning for/writing the book in late March 2020! But don't worry: I'm sure the death curve is legit! Nothing to see here. https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/emails-show-cuomo-staff-working-on-book/
Cuomo, Trump, and Fauci are all from New York City. The battle between/among them may have been good for ratings but believe me when I say they are on the same team when it comes to protecting whatever occurred in their hometown.
Remember this? No surprise. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/01/us/politics/trump-desantis-cuomo-covid-florida.html